Implied Odds In Poker

So far in our quest to become the world’s greatest player we have covered the maths of pot odds.  For example, if we have a flush draw on the turn then basic maths tells us that we will need pot odds of at least 5.1:1 in order to call a raise with +EV. However, there are actually some pretty advanced factors we need to take into account rather than only looking at the direct pot-odds.

If we manage to complete our flush on the river and there are multiple opponents in the pot, then surely we can expect to make a little more money by value betting the river? This is what implied odds take into account.  It is a fictitious number which estimates the amount of chips we can expect to win on future streets if we complete our hand or improve our equity in the pot.

This isn’t really that complicated is it?  In fact, you probably already knew this at the back of your head.  Implied odds are what make a lot of marginal suited-connector and low-pocket pair type hands profitable to play pre-flop.  Marginal hands like these and broadway cards are very playable, particularly from position, because you can expect to suck in a lot of opponents and stack them by hitting a straight or flush on the flop.  The more opponents, the bigger the implied odds!

Let’s look at an example: We’re sat in BB with Ks-Js against two opponents MP and LP and the board reads 4s-9s-Ad-10h.  There is $40 in the pot.  If our MP raises $20 on the turn and LP calls, then pot-odds says we should still fold since we’re only getting 4:1 for our money and we need 5:1 to call (40+20+20:20 = 4:1).

However, if we complete our flush on the river and expect one of our opponents to call another $40 value bet, then our expected pot-odds for calling a bet on the turn are actually 120:20 or 6:1.  This means that our implied odds fill the gap between our hand odds and pot-odds on the turn, making it +EV to call.

Conditions for Implied Odds

Implied odds are always biggest against passive players - otherwise known to you and me as calling stations or fish.  Against passive players seated to the left of you, you can continually limp into pots that they have raised pre-flop in the hope of isolating them post-flop (i.e. ensuring that only you and the fish are involved in the flop).  Imagine for instance that you hit your set with 55 on a AJ5 board and your opponent has AQ.  By calling his raise pre-flop, even without pot odds, the play is still profitable if you can regularly stack or get him to call you on 3 streets every time you hit your set.

TAGs are the next best players to draw against or limp with marginal hands from CO.  TAGs tend to only ever play premium hands like AK or 1010 post-flop, and they usually play these hands thick and fast by c-betting missed flops.  If you hit the unsuspected nuts on a flop like 6-8-8 with 78, then you’ll get a lot of calling value from your bets.  Unfortunately, LAGs tend to fold a lot to missed flops and sense when they’re behind faster.  You won’t get as many calls from LAGs as you would from a TAG which is why set-mining or fielding marginal hands against them is lower EV in the long run.

Negative Implied Odds

Negative implied odds are the chances of you being beaten by the nuts even when you draw your hand.  For example, let’s say you turn and call a c-bet on the flop because you have four to the flush K high. But, if you suspect your opponent could have a better flush draw (or full house) then obviously you can’t expect to win chips on future streets by completin