Learn Texas Hold'em Poker Odds
How many times will you make a flush draw? How good a chance are you to hit an inside straight draw? There's no way around it; to be any sort of successful poker player you will need to acquire at least a basic knowledge of the odds involved with the game. This can be a scary thought for players starting out., although you can rest assured, you don’t have to be the head of the math class to be a winning player. You will simply need to be able to learn some simple texas holdem odds.
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The purpose of calculating odds, is to avoid gambling. Texas holdem odds can be broken down into two parts; hand or draw odds, and pot odds. Later on you can also start factoring in implied odds. If you can approximate your odds of making a hand, then compare them to your pot odds, you can then use this information to decide whether you’re making a winning play in the long run. In online poker especially, where you will have little to no visual information on your opponents, calculating odds plays an even larger role in ensuring success.
Texas Holdem Pot Odds
You should always try to be aware of your pot odds at any stage in a hand. Pot odds are simply the odds you are getting when calling a bet. They can be worked out by comparing the ratio between the current size of the pot and the size of your next call. If there’s $200 in the middle and there‘s a $20 bet to you, your pot odds are just that; 200:20. Simplifying this ratio gives you the more manageable figure of 10:1. Meaning that if you make the call, you stand to win 10 times that amount if you make the winning hand. You’re paying $20, to win $200.
Texas Holdem Hand Odds (Draw Odds)
Hand odds show you the chance of you making the hand you are drawing to. Working out your hand odds can be slightly trickier, however they are essential to ensuring you are a profitable poker player. To be able to make rational decisions at the table, you need to at least have a rough understanding of where you stand in the hand.
The elementary stage to calculating hand odds is knowing how many cards will help you. These cards are what is referred to as “outs”. Once you know your outs, you can then use the same ratio method as before to find your chances of winning.
For example, if you’re drawing to a flush and a flush only, you’ve got 9 outs to make your hand (13 cards of the same suit, less the 4 suited cards you are aware of). After the flop you have 47 unknown cards (you can see the two in your hand, plus the 3 on the board from a total of 52 cards in a deck). So out of 47 cards you have 9 outs. This leaves you with a ratio of 38:9 or approximately 4:1. Dividing the amount of cards that won’t help you, by the amount of cards that will help you (38 / 9 in this case), leaves you with your odds of making the draw. This is where you don’t have to be a maths genius. At the table, approximations are usually good enough. The more precise figure for a flush draw is 4.2:1. When doing the maths in your head, near enough will normally be good enough. You can use your time away from the table to memorize exact figures if you like. The more exact you are the better off you will be, however it’s a tall ask for many to divide by decimals and fractions in their head in the heat of the moment.
Some Important Points of Note:
After the flop there are 47 unknown cards
On the turn there are 46 unknown cards
Unknown cards - Outs = Cards that won’t help you.
Cards that won’t help you / Outs = Hand Odds
Now you can start piecing the puzzle together. Once you know your odds of making a hand you can compare these to your pot odds to determine whether you have a positive expected value for making a call. That is, in the long run, you expect to profit if you make a call.
If you add our two previous examples together, you will see that you have pot odds of 10:1, and hand odds of 4:1, which would be putting you in a highly profitable situation. A more in depth approach would be to look at it this way; approximately 1 in 5 times you will hit your flush (4:1). The 4 times you miss will cost you $80 ($20 call x 4). The 1 time you make your hand will net you a whopping $200. $200 - $80 = +$120. So although you may be sure you don’t have the best hand, it would still be correct to call the bet in this situation, because in the long run you stand to win more than you lose by doing so. Wherever pot odds are greater than hand odds you will have a positive expected value from the situation.
Texas holdem odds can be simplified and approximated, but should never be ignored. Knowing your chances in certain situations will enable you to make well informed, logical decisions, putting you ahead of the gamblers at the table that you’re looking to make money from. Poker should be thought of as one long session made up of numerous small sessions. While knowing your odds doesn’t guarantee you short term success (you may be an overwhelming favourite and still be beaten in any given hand), playing to the odds will guarantee you long run success.